Space tourism will soon no longer be affordable for the masses – WISH-TV | Indianapolis News | Indiana weather
(CNN) – Billionaires Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos are ready to offer space travel. But only other billionaires – or maybe millionaires – need to apply.
If you’re a space enthusiast with no six-figure disposable income to spend on travel to places few tourists have gone before, you’ll have to wait. Space flights that cost just four digits, or even five digits, won’t be available anytime soon.
Experts agree that it is impossible today to give a precise target date for when affordable spaceflight will be available to the masses, but most agree that it is decades away at best.
Achieve critical mass
One of the biggest challenges is the difficulty of sending enough potential amateur astronauts into space at one time to spread the costs in order to make space travel affordable.
“The first planes carried very few people,” said Laura Forczyk, owner of space consulting firm Astralytical. âImagine what airfares would look like if they still carried only a few. “
Virgin Galactic’s much-publicized test flight with Branson on board on July 11 carried just four passengers in addition to the two pilots. He sold around 600 tickets for future flights to the tune of $ 250,000 each.
On Tuesday, Bezos, his brother and two other passengers were the first to fly slightly higher in space aboard Bezos’ space firm Blue Origin’s New Shepard rocket. It should soon start selling tickets at a price similar to that of Virgin Galactic.
âIf you want to take the price from $ 250,000 to four digits, like an airline, you have to spread it over a lot more bodies,â said Ron Epstein, aerospace analyst at Bank of America. But getting so many people into space on one flight is extremely difficult. It is an effort that requires enormous amounts of fuel and energy to lift each pound. The technology simply does not exist today.
There must also be a significant demand for space travel to fill those seats, regardless of the price.
âThe only way to get that volume is to integrate it into a transportation network,â Epstein said. “Do you want to spend all your time taking a joy ride?” No. You want to get from New York to Tokyo in an hour or two.
Two birds, one moon shot
That’s why Virgin is exploring possible point-to-point spaceflight around the world, reducing the time it takes to get from New York to Tokyo or London to Hong Kong to hours by traveling at hypersonic speeds in the vacuum of the sky. ‘space.
This is a market that UBS estimated in 2019 at $ 20 billion per year. The bank based the figure on the more than 150 million passengers who took 10 hours or more on commercial jets in 2018. Getting just 5% of those travelers to pay $ 2,500 to travel to space would produce that $ 20 billion in annual revenue.
âWhile some may view the potential of using space to serve the long-haul travel market as science fiction,â UBS said in a note, âwe believeâ¦ point-to-point flights that last more than 10 hoursâ¦ constitute a vast market to be cannibalized.
Epstein thinks UBS’s space price estimate of $ 2,500 is far too low. Today, business travelers can spend over $ 20,000 on a long-distance, round-trip or first-class business ticket. He thinks many of them would be willing to pay a premium to turn a 20-hour trip into a trip of just a few hours.
But to make it a reality, it will take time and all kinds of technological advancements that are not possible today.
âThe speed at which you have to go to get that many people into space is defined by physics,â said Epstein. âIt’s not something that will be easy to do. I think it’s going to happen during my children’s lifetime, if not during my lifetime. But it’s not in five years.
The first space tourist was American millionaire Dennis Tito, who paid Russia $ 20 million in 2001 to fly it to and from the International Space Station. He is the first of seven travelers to date to have paid millions to fly into space.
Although the price is much more expensive than the $ 250,000 tickets Branson is now selling, Tito remained in orbit for eight days. So by the minute it was a lot cheaper, as passengers on Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin will only be weightless in space for three to five minutes.